Peru's H1 2026 agri-exports up 5%, against a forecast strong El Niño for the 2026/27 season

Peru's blended export price averaged $1.08 per pound across the half, up 4%, and the three lines the report profiles got there differently. Grapes turned in $731 million, an 18.3% gain the report puts almost entirely on price: shipment volumes were close to unchanged while average export values moved from $1.12/lb to $1.30/lb. Blueberries grew on both sides, with volume up 35% to 59,000 tonnes and prices up from $2.79/lb to $3.11/lb. Avocados at $1.045 billion, roughly 19% of total agricultural export value, gained 10.5% on improved prices as global supplies stayed constrained. June blueberry shipments more than doubled year on year, which the report reads as the season opening earlier than usual.

Forecasts point to the potential development of a strong coastal El Niño between late 2026 and early 2027. If it lands, the report says it could disrupt crops including grapes, blueberries and mangoes through four channels, not one: delayed harvests, reduced fruit quality, infrastructure damage and higher logistics costs. Two of those hit fruit that was picked in good condition, so a quality clause alone will not cover it. The report argues Peru goes into that window from a position of greater strength than in previous years: a more diversified export portfolio, production spread across more regions, better irrigation infrastructure, advances in plant genetics and a growing network of export ports.