Ocean freight rates peaked in early July, then softened as US tariff action bit

The 3% composite fall was not spread evenly. Shanghai to Genoa dropped 6% to $5,630 per 40ft, the steepest of the four lanes Drewry singled out, while Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 3% to $4,677 and Shanghai to New York held flat at $7,578. A Mediterranean-routed booking saw twice the percentage relief of a Rotterdam one. The one US East Coast lane in the reading saw none. Drewry pairs the tariff effect with a slowdown in front-loading activity, and names port congestion alongside trade policy and geopolitics as influences on market conditions and rate trends in the coming weeks.

Blank sailings are moving in opposite directions on the two head-haul trades. Drewry's Container Capacity Insight counted eight transpacific blank sailings for the following week, up from seven, which it says cuts available capacity, against three on Asia-Europe, down from four. On that basis Drewry expected transpacific rate volatility to reduce and Asia-Europe rates to stay stable. A further cost risk sits outside the index: several carriers have introduced Emergency Fuel Surcharges effective from August, which Drewry attributes to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A price agreed off the late-July spot reading can be reopened by an EFS line before the box loads, so confirm in writing which surcharges a forwarder's quote includes and how long it holds.