Peru's H1 2026 agri-exports up 5%, against a forecast very strong El Niño for the 2026/27 season
Volume rose just under 2% to about 2.3 million tonnes while average export price rose 4%, so growth was price-led more than volume-led. Avocados led at $1.045 billion, grapes reached $731 million (+18.3%), and blueberries $405 million (+50%). The July report flagged grapes, blueberries and mangoes as exposed to a forecast El Niño through delayed harvests and quality risk, and NOAA's forecast has since firmed to a very strong event (see the update below).
Key facts
- Peru's H1 2026 agri-exports reached $5.4 billion, +5% year on year — price-led growth (price +4%) more than volume-led (volume +2% to ~2.3 million tonnes).
- Avocados led at $1.045 billion; grapes $731 million (+18.3%); blueberries $405 million (+50%). The July report flagged grapes, blueberries and mangoes as exposed to a forecast El Niño through delayed harvests and quality risk, and NOAA's 10 September forecast of a very strong event for 2026/27 is firmer than the one that report relied on.
Update, 1 October 2026: NOAA now expects a very strong event
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (ENSO discussion of 10 September 2026) has an El Niño Advisory in effect and puts the chance of a very strong event during the 2026/27 Northern Hemisphere fall and winter at more than 90%, with a 75% chance of a three-month index of +2.5 C or higher in October to December 2026. That is a firmer signal than the forecast of a strong El Niño this item was first published against. NOAA's next discussion is due on 8 October 2026. The Peru export figures are from July and have not been updated.
Peru's blended export price averaged $1.08 per pound across the half, up 4%, and the three lines the report profiles got there differently. Grapes turned in $731 million, an 18.3% gain the report puts almost entirely on price: shipment volumes were close to unchanged while average export values moved from $1.12/lb to $1.30/lb. Blueberries grew on both sides, with volume up 35% to 59,000 tonnes and prices up from $2.79/lb to $3.11/lb. Avocados at $1.045 billion, roughly 19% of total agricultural export value, gained 10.5% on improved prices as global supplies stayed constrained. June blueberry shipments more than doubled year on year, which the report reads as the season opening earlier than usual.
At the time of the July report, forecasts pointed to the potential development of a strong coastal El Niño between late 2026 and early 2027; NOAA's later forecast is firmer (see the update above). If it lands, the report says it could disrupt crops including grapes, blueberries and mangoes through four channels, not one: delayed harvests, reduced fruit quality, infrastructure damage and higher logistics costs. Two of those hit fruit that was picked in good condition, so a quality clause alone will not cover it. The report argues Peru goes into that window from a position of greater strength than in previous years: a more diversified export portfolio, production spread across more regions, better irrigation infrastructure, advances in plant genetics and a growing network of export ports.
Why it matters
The exposure window lands on Peru's Q4-Q1 grape and blueberry campaigns — exactly when Peruvian fruit sets the reference price for Northern Hemisphere winter programmes. Importers writing fixed-price winter programmes on Peruvian grapes or blueberries should build in a quality-spec and delivery-window clause rather than assume last season's arrival profile repeats.